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President Donald Trump and the Republican Party are facing a major electoral test as Americans vote in the midterm elections, which could determine control of Congress and shape the final two years of his presidency.
The elections are taking place amid growing voter concerns over the rising cost of living, fuel and food prices, trade tariffs and the administration’s war with Iran.
Trump has intensified his campaign efforts, holding rallies across the country in support of Republican candidates. During his final campaign appeal at Washington DC’s Reflecting Pool on Monday, he told supporters that Republicans had given themselves “a very strong shot” at victory.
The President also urged voters to approach the elections as though he were personally on the ballot, underlining the importance he has attached to the outcome.
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However, economic concerns and declining approval ratings are putting Republican candidates under pressure, including in traditionally conservative states such as Iowa, Kansas, Texas and Ohio.
Managing Editor of the Cook Political Report, Carrie Dann, said increased Republican spending on campaign advertisements in traditionally safe states suggested the party was concerned about its electoral prospects. She pointed particularly to Kansas, where spending on the Senate race had exceeded initial expectations.
Trump’s declining popularity has also raised questions about whether his endorsement remains an advantage for Republican candidates. His prolonged war with Iran and its economic consequences have added to public dissatisfaction.
The price of diesel reportedly rose from 3.75 dollars per gallon before the war began in February to 6.52 dollars in September. Inflation also increased from three per cent when Trump assumed office to 3.7 per cent, with economists saying it would have been lower without his global tariffs.
Global Director of Research at polling organisation More in Common, Stephen Hawkins, said several states previously considered Republican strongholds were becoming more competitive. He identified Texas, Ohio and Kansas among the states where Democrats were making gains.
Some Republican voters have expressed frustration with Trump’s handling of the economy and foreign policy. In Iowa, voters cited rising fuel, grocery and fertiliser costs, as well as the war with Iran, as reasons for reconsidering their support.
However, some conservative voters said their political and Christian values would prevent them from switching allegiance, despite disagreements with the President’s policies.
Democrats are seeking to capitalise on the dissatisfaction by campaigning on reducing living costs and challenging the administration’s policies. Democratic strategist Mary Anne Marsh said the economy and the Iran war were central issues, warning that Republican lawmakers who failed to challenge Trump could face electoral consequences.
Despite the pressure on Republicans, analysts caution that dissatisfaction with Trump does not automatically translate into support for Democrats. Pre-election polls put the President’s approval rating at about 38 per cent, while only 29 per cent of voters viewed the Democratic Party favourably.
Control of the House of Representatives is considered more favourable to Democrats, while winning the Senate remains a bigger challenge. Thirty-five Senate seats are being contested, and Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control. However, losing Michigan, where they are defending an existing seat, would increase the number of additional seats required to five.
Key Senate battlegrounds include Michigan, Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Maine, Alaska and North Carolina.
A Democratic victory in the House could limit Trump’s legislative agenda and give the opposition greater influence over congressional proceedings and investigations into his administration. Democrats could also pursue investigations and consider impeachment proceedings against some officials, with Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth reportedly among those who could face scrutiny over the Iran war.
The midterm elections also carry implications for both parties ahead of the 2028 presidential race, as Democrats assess their appeal among rural voters and their ability to compete in traditionally Republican states.
The outcome will provide a major indication of public opinion on Trump’s leadership and his administration’s policies as the country approaches the next presidential election.
