President Bola Tinubu has assured Nigerians that the country’s economy is firmly on a growth trajectory, citing sustained trade surpluses, rising reserves, and stronger non-oil revenues.
In his Independence Day address on Wednesday, Tinubu said Nigeria had become a net exporter, with trade surpluses recorded for five consecutive quarters. The surplus rose by 44.3% in the second quarter of 2025 to ₦7.46 trillion ($4.74 billion), the largest in three years.
Goods manufactured in Nigeria and exported surged by 173%, while non-oil exports now account for 48% of government revenue, compared to oil exports at 52%.
“We are now selling more to the world than we are buying, a fundamental shift that strengthens our currency and creates jobs at home,” Tinubu declared.
He highlighted growth in external reserves, which rose to $42.03 billion in September 2025, the highest since 2019, alongside an increase in the tax-to-GDP ratio to 13.5%. A new tax law, set to take effect in January, is expected to expand the tax base while offering relief to low-income earners.
Oil and Energy
Tinubu noted that oil production had recovered to 1.68 million barrels per day, up from barely one million in May 2023. He attributed this rebound to improved security, fresh investments, and stronger stakeholder engagement in the Niger Delta.
He added that Nigeria had refined petrol domestically for the first time in four decades and had become Africa’s leading exporter of aviation fuel.
Currency and Inflation
The President said the Naira had stabilised following foreign exchange reforms, with the gap between official and parallel market rates significantly reduced. He noted that inflation had declined to 20.12% in August 2025, the lowest in three years.
“The multiple exchange rates, which fostered corruption and arbitrage, are now part of history,” he said.
Social Investment and Mining
According to Tinubu, ₦330 billion has been disbursed to eight million households under social programmes, with beneficiaries receiving ₦25,000 per tranche.
He also pointed to a dramatic recovery in coal mining, which rebounded from a 22% decline in the first quarter to 57.5% growth in the second quarter.
Infrastructure and Stock Market
On infrastructure, Tinubu said rail and water transport grew by 40% and 27%, respectively, with major projects such as the Kano-Katsina-Maradi rail, Kaduna-Kano line, Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, and Sokoto-Badagry Highway progressing.
The Federal Executive Council recently approved $3 billion for the completion of the Eastern Rail Project, he disclosed.
He also said Nigeria’s stock market had surged to unprecedented levels, with the All-Share Index rising from 55,000 points in May 2023 to 142,000 points as of September 26, 2025.
Macroeconomic Gains
The President highlighted a cut in interest rates to 27% by the Central Bank of Nigeria — the first in five years — as evidence of renewed confidence in macroeconomic stability.
He said GDP grew by 4.23% in the second quarter of 2025, the fastest pace in four years and higher than the IMF projection of 3.4%.
“We have paid down the infamous ‘Ways and Means’ advances that threatened our stability. Following the removal of the corrupt petroleum subsidy, we have freed up trillions of Naira for investment in the real economy and support for vulnerable households,” Tinubu added.
He said Nigeria’s debt service-to-revenue ratio had dropped from 97% to below 50%, while non-oil revenues reached a record-breaking ₦20 trillion by August, with ₦3.65 trillion raised in September alone.
