Donald Trump has been presented with a strategy by two key advisers to end Russia’s war in Ukraine if he wins the presidential election.
This plan involves conditioning further U.S. military aid to Ukraine on its willingness to engage in peace talks with Moscow.
The plan, proposed by retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg and Fred Fleitz, suggests that the United States would warn Moscow that refusing to negotiate would lead to increased U.S. support for Ukraine.
Kellogg, one of Trump’s national security advisers, explained that the proposal includes a ceasefire based on current battle lines during peace negotiations.
Kellogg and Fleitz, who both served as chiefs of staff in Trump’s National Security Council during his presidency from 2017 to 2021, have presented their strategy to Trump, who responded favorably.
“I’m not claiming he agreed with it or agreed with every word of it, but we were pleased to get the feedback we did,” Fleitz stated.
Trump spokesperson Steven Cheung emphasized that only statements made by Trump or authorized members of his campaign should be considered official.
The detailed plan by Kellogg and Fleitz marks a significant shift in the U.S. stance on the war and is expected to face opposition from European allies and within Trump’s Republican Party.
The Kremlin noted that any peace plan proposed by a potential Trump administration would need to reflect the realities on the ground. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov remarked, “President Putin has repeatedly said that Russia has been and remains open to negotiations, taking into account the real state of affairs on the ground. We remain open to negotiations.”
Ukraine’s foreign ministry did not respond to requests for comment on the plan. Kellogg emphasized the urgency of bringing Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table if Trump wins the election.
“We tell the Ukrainians, ‘You’ve got to come to the table, and if you don’t come to the table, support from the United States will dry up,'” he said. “And you tell Putin, ‘He’s got to come to the table and if you don’t come to the table, then we’ll give Ukrainians everything they need to kill you in the field.'”
According to their proposal, Moscow would be encouraged to negotiate with the promise of delaying NATO membership for Ukraine for an extended period. Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, and despite some recent gains by Russia, the front lines have largely remained static since late 2022, resulting in tens of thousands of casualties on both sides in what has been described as the bloodiest fighting in Europe since World War Two.
Fleitz asserted that Ukraine would not need to formally cede territory to Russia under their plan but acknowledged that Ukraine is unlikely to regain full control of its territory in the near term. “Our concern is that this has become a war of attrition that’s going to kill a whole generation of young men,” he said.
A lasting peace in Ukraine would require additional security guarantees for the country, Kellogg and Fleitz noted, with Fleitz adding that “arming Ukraine to the teeth” would likely be a key component of such guarantees.
“President Trump has repeatedly stated that a top priority in his second term will be to quickly negotiate an end to the Russia-Ukraine war,” Cheung said.
“The war between Russia and Ukraine never would have happened if Donald J. Trump were president. So sad.”
The Biden campaign criticized Trump’s stance on Putin, with campaign spokesperson James Singer saying, “Donald Trump heaps praise on Vladimir Putin every chance he gets, and he’s made clear he won’t stand against Putin or stand up for democracy.”
Some Republicans may be hesitant to support increased aid to Ukraine under the plan, given that the U.S. has already spent over $70 billion on military aid since the invasion. “What (Trump’s supporters) want to do is reduce aid, if not turn off the spigot,” said Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council of Foreign Relations.
Putin has indicated that the war could end if Ukraine abandons its ambitions to join NATO and cede control of four eastern and southern provinces claimed by Russia. During a United Nations Security Council meeting last week, French and British ambassadors reiterated that peace could only be achieved if Russia withdraws from Ukrainian territory, a stance shared by Kyiv.
Analysts have expressed concern that the plan by Kellogg and Fleitz might favor Moscow in negotiations.
“What Kellogg is describing is a process slanted toward Ukraine giving up all of the territory that Russia now occupies,” said Daniel Fried, a former assistant secretary of state who worked on Russia policy.
In a podcast interview last week, Trump ruled out committing U.S. troops to Ukraine and expressed skepticism about making Ukraine a NATO member. He has indicated he would quickly reduce aid to Kyiv if elected.
President Biden has consistently supported increased aid to Ukraine and backed its eventual NATO membership. Earlier in June, Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy signed a 10-year bilateral security agreement.
