The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has revealed that its average production for November fell to 28.826 million bpd—the lowest since June, despite Angola, Gabon, and Nigeria recording an increase in production by a cumulative of 132,000 bpd.
Saudi Arabia also recorded its lowest monthly average since May 2022 in November by 404,000 bpd, to 10.474 million bpd.
Significant production decrease was also recorded by the United Arab Emirates, which saw a decline of 149,000 bpd in November, landing at 3.037 million bpd; Kuwait saw a dip of 121,000 bpd to 2.685 million bpd; and Iraq recorded a loss of 117,000 bpd to 4.465 million bpd.
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) left its key projections for oil supply and demand unchanged in its recent Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR).
OPEC projects global oil demand to grow by 2.55mn b/d to 99.6mn b/d this year, accompanied by a 2.25mn b/d increase to 101.8mn b/d in 2023. Next year’s growth will be propped up by “expected geopolitical improvements and the containment of Covid-19 in China.”
However, OPEC cautioned that the present unchanged outlook from last month “assumes the successful containment of COVID-19 and a resumption of pre-pandemic economic growth in China, while India’s oil demand is projected to be supported by continued healthy economic growth.”
“As the year 2022 draws to a close, the recent global economic growth slowdown with all its far-reaching implications is becoming quite evident. The year 2023 is expected to remain surrounded by many uncertainties, mandating vigilance and caution,” OPEC said.
The cartel predicts demand in China will rebound by 530,000 b/d in 2023 after falling by a projected 180,000 b/d this year, even as it expects Beijing to relax COVID-related restrictions in most regions by the end of March 2023.
OPEC also warned that several challenges lie ahead for the global economy, including further monetary secure measures by major central banks depending on inflation persistence.
“Rising interest rates will be a cause for concern for countries with high sovereign debt levels,” it said. “Tight labour markets, amid calls for higher wages, will add pressure as will continued supply chain issues.”
OPEC has left its oil supply projections mainly unchanged — non-Opec supply is expected to increase by 1.89mn b/d this year and by 1.54mn b/d in 2023. It expects America, Norway, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana to drive non-OPEC supply growth next year, and a decline in oil production for Russia and Mexico.
OPEC reiterates that “large uncertainties” remain around the impact of the EU’s ban on Russian oil imports and around the potential of America shale output. It envisages Russian liquids production dropping to 10.11mn b/d in 2023 from 10.96mn b/d this year, unchanged from last month’s MOMR.
The forecast on its own members’ crude is also largely unchanged, at 28.6mn b/d for 2022 and 29.2mn b/d for 2023
