Tens of thousands of people have been displaced from their homes on both sides due to the nearly daily cross-border assaults between Israel and Hezbollah, the potent military and political movement in Lebanon supported by Iran, since October. These attacks have raised concerns about the possibility of an all-out war.
While both sides have shown signs of trying to avoid a major confrontation, the risk of miscalculation remains high. The recent attack on the Druze town of Majdal Shams in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, which killed at least 12 people, including children, has intensified these concerns.
Israel accuses Hezbollah of carrying out the strike and has vowed to respond. “Israel will not overlook this murderous attack,” stated Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “Hezbollah will pay a heavy price, which it has not paid up to now.” Hezbollah, however, denies involvement in the attack.
Despite the group’s denial, Hezbollah claimed to have targeted the Hermon Brigade with an Iranian-made Falaq missile, raising the possibility that the missile may have missed its intended target.
Daniel Hagari, a spokesman for the Israeli military, said intelligence indicated that Hezbollah was responsible, describing the group’s denial as “a lie.” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken also supported this assertion, stating that “every indication” pointed to Hezbollah and reaffirmed the US’s support for Israel’s right to defend itself.
The strikes by Hezbollah began on October 8, following a deadly Hamas attack on Israel, with Hezbollah claiming their actions were in support of Palestinians in Gaza. The violence has resulted in over 450 deaths in Lebanon, including about 350 Hezbollah fighters and at least 100 civilians. In Israel, 23 civilians and 17 soldiers have been killed.
Most Israeli attacks in Lebanon have targeted the south and the eastern Bekaa Valley, both Hezbollah strongholds. An expansion of Israeli operations to previously untouched areas, including parts of Beirut, could escalate the conflict significantly.
Hezbollah, considered more formidable than Hamas, has been preparing for a major conflict with Israel since their last war in 2006. Western estimates suggest Hezbollah possesses around 150,000 rockets and missiles, including precision-guided ones capable of striking deep into Israeli territory.
The Israeli Defense Forces are reportedly ready to launch an offensive against Hezbollah, though specific details remain unclear. Israeli authorities are under increasing pressure to act, particularly to enable the return of displaced residents to northern communities.
Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s leader, has stated that while the group does not seek a full-scale war, it is prepared for one. He warned that any conflict would be fought “without constraints or rules,” potentially involving other Iranian-backed militias in the region.
The consequences of a full-scale war would be devastating for both countries, especially Lebanon, which is already in a severe economic and political crisis. With 80% of its population in poverty and no president for nearly two years, Lebanon’s government has limited control over Hezbollah.
Diplomatic efforts are ongoing to prevent a major escalation. Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib has urged Hezbollah to avoid retaliation. Meanwhile, Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman Oren Marmorstein emphasized that implementing United Nations Resolution 1701, which calls for the withdrawal of armed groups from southern Lebanon, is the “only way” to prevent further conflict.
As Lebanon awaits Israel’s response, the situation remains precarious, with both sides on high alert and the international community watching closely.
