The Mexican government has pushed back against the International Monetary Fund’s gloomy economic forecast, insisting that new investment strategies will counterbalance the impact of U.S. tariffs. The IMF’s latest projection slashed Mexico’s 2025 growth outlook by 1.7 percentage points to a 0.3% contraction, citing severe damage from President Donald Trump’s trade policies.
President Claudia Sheinbaum dismissed the negative assessment during her daily press briefing, asserting that Mexico’s economic plan would prove more resilient than international analysts anticipate. “We have concrete measures to strengthen our economy and attract productive investment,” she stated, though her administration recently downgraded its own growth forecast to 1.5-2.3% due to trade uncertainties.
The dispute comes as Mexico negotiates with Washington to remove punishing tariffs on key exports like automobiles and steel while simultaneously courting foreign investors to diversify its economy. Despite becoming America’s top trading partner in 2023—surpassing China with over 80% of exports destined for U.S. markets—Mexico’s economy already showed vulnerability by contracting in late 2024 before the latest tariffs took effect.
Economy Minister Raquel Buenrostro revealed that advanced talks are underway with European and Asian manufacturers to relocate operations to Mexico, leveraging the country’s trade agreement network. “Our industrial parks are seeing record interest from firms seeking alternatives to tariff-affected supply chains,” she noted.
The IMF maintains its warning stands, with Western Hemisphere director Rodrigo Valdes stressing that “no economy can fully offset 10-25% tariffs on its primary exports.” However, Mexican officials point to a 37% surge in FDI applications since March as evidence their strategy is gaining traction.
As the peso fluctuates near historic lows against the dollar, the Bank of Mexico is preparing emergency liquidity measures while ruling out capital controls. “We’ll navigate these headwinds through smart policy, not panic,” assured central bank governor Victoria Rodríguez Ceja. The coming months will test whether Mexico’s confidence in its economic roadmap can defy the IMF’s bearish projections.
