Nigeria’s sovereign bonds fell marginally on Monday following U.S. President Donald Trump’s remarks threatening potential military action against the country over alleged persecution of Christians.
Trump said on Sunday that the U.S. military could deploy troops or carry out airstrikes in Nigeria to halt what he described as “the killing of large numbers of Christians.”
Long-term debt instruments were the most affected, with Nigeria’s 2051 Eurobond dropping by about 0.5 cents before recovering slightly to trade just under 92 cents on the dollar, contrasting with the largely stable trend across other emerging markets.
Reacting to the comments, the Federal Government said it would welcome U.S. assistance in combating terrorism, provided Nigeria’s territorial integrity was fully respected.
Data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) indicates that insurgent attacks, banditry, and farmer-herder clashes claimed about 3,570 civilian lives in Nigeria last year.
Despite the U.S. President’s remarks, analysts said market reactions remained contained. A Reuters report quoted Standard Chartered’s Head of Africa Strategy in London as saying, “The dip seems contained and has partly reversed since.”
Foreign investors have continued to show confidence in Nigeria, driven by President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies and the liberalisation of the naira exchange rate.
According to Tellimer, Nigeria’s equities have gained about 65% in U.S. dollar terms this year, ranking among Africa’s top-performing emerging markets after Ghana.
Aberdeen fund manager Kevin Daly noted that the situation was unlikely to evolve into a major market concern, adding that Nigerian authorities were expected to engage in dialogue with their U.S. counterparts.
Similarly, Tellimer’s Hasnain Malik downplayed fears of disruption, noting that even if U.S. strikes occurred — which he said remained “very unlikely” — they would have limited economic impact given the low commercial activity in Nigeria’s northern regions.
He added that Trump’s threats were “a red herring for the investment case,” stressing that investors should focus instead on Nigeria’s ongoing policy reforms and strong market valuations.
