China’s campaign to build a world-class artificial intelligence (AI) chip industry is accelerating, but experts say matching the technological supremacy of US giant Nvidia remains an uphill battle that could take at least a decade.
Beijing’s renewed push is aimed at countering Washington’s export restrictions on advanced AI chips, which the US says are necessary to prevent China from gaining a military edge. The move has intensified a high-stakes technological rivalry between the world’s two largest economies.
“China wants chips that policy cannot take away,” said Stephen Wu, founder of Carthage Capital and a former AI software engineer. However, achieving “full end-to-end parity with Nvidia’s best chips, memory packaging, networking, and software is not guaranteed” by 2030 or even beyond, he told AFP.
Despite government backing and rising investments, analysts say China still lags in areas like high-bandwidth memory and chip packaging — some of the most complex parts of semiconductor design. “These chips are extremely advanced and tiny, so imagine carving a stone sculpture with a hammer instead of a chisel,” Wu said.
Industry analysts estimate that China may need between five and ten years to bridge the technological gap. “The future is bright, but not yet,” said Dilin Wu, research strategist at Pepperstone. “Significant gaps remain in performance, energy efficiency, and ecosystem maturity.”
Chinese tech firms including Alibaba and Huawei are leading the charge. Alibaba has doubled its investment in AI, while Huawei is reportedly set to double production of its top-tier Ascend 910C chip next year. Smaller players like Cambricon have seen their shares surge amid optimism over Beijing’s tech drive.
Even Xiaomi, whose early chip ventures failed, is re-entering the field. “Chips are the only way for Xiaomi to succeed,” CEO Lei Jun said recently in Beijing.
Still, Nvidia remains dominant in powering large language models and generative AI systems. “Nvidia chips are still the best to train large language models,” said Chen Cheng of iFLYTEK. She added that her company has since switched to Huawei chips, “currently the best in China.”
Meanwhile, tensions persist. Beijing has reportedly barred major Chinese firms from buying Nvidia’s latest processors, while the US now requires Nvidia to pay a 15% levy on certain chip sales to China.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has warned that US restrictions could backfire. “They’re nanoseconds behind us,” he said on a tech podcast. “So we’ve got to go compete.”
